Monday, 27 July, 2015 -( 83˚F / 28˚C w/ Scattered Clouds in the Finger Lakes Region of New York @ 3:45 pm &&& 75˚F / 24˚C & Overcast in New Brunswick @ 4:45 pm &&& 63˚F / 17˚ C & raining in North Pole, Alaska @ 11:45 am there )-
Walter Burien’s forecast for upcoming Ekonomic Manipulations – Came in email today, link at the bottom :
——— djo ———
CAFR1 NATIONAL POST
CAFR1 MARKET RANTS POST OF 07/27/15 at 10:07 AM EASTERN TIME.
This Wednesday is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) monthly meeting in which the determination is made for a interest rate increase. The announcement comes out at 2 PM Eastern time.
Interest rates have held at their lowest levels for several years. All have been watching for the first move by the Fed towards the 1st increase.
Well, the data they look at to make their determination, Unemployment, GDP, Durable Goods orders, etc. have almost fallen in line. The market chatter has been looking for the 1st increase to take place in September or October of this year. From the writing on the wall, and in my opinion, I give it a 60% probability the 1st increase will be announced tomorrow at 2 PM Eastern time.
At last months meeting, one member pushed to have the increase start last month. At this meeting the data that came out since the last meeting supports an increase.
Bottom line if they do so? Some of the wildest swings seen for quite some time in the interest rate futures, metals, dollar index, stock indexes, etc. US 30 Year Bonds could see a swing of 3 to 5 points to the downside . Silver a $1.25 to $2 swing to the upside. Stock indexes to the downside, then a massive swing to the upside. All will be on a roller-coaster ride for sure.
If they do not? The chatter from the meeting will probably indicate doing so where it will have the same effect but not as visceral.
Keep your eyes open tomorrow!
Sent FYI and truly Yours, Walter J. Burien, Jr. P. O. Box 2112 Saint Johns, AZ 85936